Blue growth boundaries in novel Baltic food websCoordinator: Laura Uusitalo, Finnish Environment Institute
Total budget: EUR 2.8 million
Duration: 3 years, 1.4.2017-31.3.2020
Novel food webs, compositionally unlike any found today, are increasingly likely due to climate change and the multiple anthropogenic impacts marine ecosystems face. Not anticipating them will significantly hamper the success of future ecosystem-based management (EBM) and provision of ecosystem services (ESS). BONUS BLUEWEBS will investigate the development and consequences of novel food webs using innovative data analyses such as big data analytics, cutting edge trait-based ecology and ecological network analysis. A 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical modelling system will project large-scale scenarios of changes in external and internal drivers and inform case study models that specifically account for thresholds between different ecosystem states, allowing assessments of the effects of environmental degradation on the capability of food webs to cycle and transform nutrients and hazardous substances. An outstanding characteristic of BONUS BLUEWEBS is the application of modern bio-economic and social science approaches to evaluate the consequences of novel food webs for ESS provision, and inclusion of stakeholders in a transdisciplinary exercise. BONUS BLUEWEBS will directly provide tools for EBM, such as indicators for MSFD descriptors and Bayesian Network based decision support systems. Overall, BLUEWEBS will have as its major outcome an assessment of the consequences of achieving a Good Environmental Status on the capability of Baltic Sea food webs to sustainably produce Blue Growth.
Keywords: integrated, trait-based, socio-economic, resilience, modelling
Partners: Finland, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Sweden