Integrated Bayesian risk analysis of ecosystem management - Gulf of Finland as case study

IBAM final report
IBAM briefing on key results
Year 2 progress report
Year 1 progress report

For more relevant publications, visit www.bonusportal.org/publications (category BONUS+ reports).

Begin date 1.10.2008

End date 30.9.2011  

Grant: 881 464€

General aim: The main objective is to produce an integrative environmental decision model for the Gulf of Finland (GOF). The model will be used to rank decision options in an interdisciplinary and multiobjective context. It incorporates major scientific information in probabilistic terms and combines the risk management of five themes: fisheries, eutrophication, oil spills, dioxin risks and climate change. Project will enable more effective learning in science by providing tools where new information can be integrated to old by mathematics.

Approach: Project will carry out this task by building on current models, large data sets and and published papers. Current models focusing on fisheries management, oil spill management, dioxin risks, climate change and eutrophication management are utilized.

1) web-based interactive decision models
2) new databases for probability density functions
3) new methodology concerning the meta-modelling
4) improved ways to communicate risk estimates and reasons for uncertainty
5) probabilistic maps forecasting the spread of reed, loss of biodiversity and loss of economic values of properties
6) valuation of the stakeholders and public
7) technically improved methods to obtain prior information from scientific articles and experts
8) advice for management
9) educated scientists for interdisciplinary management analysis
10) 10 review papers and presentations
11) effective communication of results in media.


Risk analysis, decision analysis, Bayesian integration, Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland, risk communication

List of Participants and Principal Scientists

University of Helsinki (UH), Finland

Sakari  Kuikka (Coordinator)

University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Estonia

Robert Aps

University of Skövde (USköv), Sweden

Noel Holmgren

Aalto University School of Science and Technology, Finland

Ari Jolma

Finnish Environment Institute, Finland

Heikki Pitkänen

Please visit the IBAM webpage for more information!