Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to support decision making

ECOSUPPORT final report
ECOSUPPORT briefing document on key results
Year 2 progress report
Year 1 progress report

For more relevant publications, visit (category BONUS+ reports).

Begin date 1.1.2009

End date 31.12.2011

Grant: 1 625 305€

The response of the marine ecosystem during the 21st century depends on several, partly competing drivers, like expected reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loads, increased water temperatures, and reduced salinities. Thus, presently discussed targets for nutrient load reductions that may be sufficient to improve the ecological status in present climate might fail under future climate conditions.

The project ECOSUPPORT combines the assessments of various drivers to promote an ecosystem approach to the management of human activities. The main aim is to provide a multi-model system tool to support decision makers. The tool is based upon scenarios from an existing state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface model for the Baltic Sea catchment area, physical-biogeochemical models of differing complexity, a food web model, statistical fish population models, economic calculations, and new data detailing climate effects on marine biota.

The expected outcome is an advanced modeling tool for scenario simulations of the whole marine ecosystem that can underpin and inform design strategies to ensure water quality standards, biodiversity and fish stocks. For the aims of ECOSUPPORT 12 institutes from 7 Baltic Sea countries form an excellent consortium consisting of University institutes, national governmental agencies and research institutes (including EU-recognized Centers of Excellence) with a wide range of expertise.


Climate change, land use change, eutrophication, multi-model ensemble simulations, transient scenarios

List of Participants and Principal Scientists

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden

Markus  Meier  (Coordinator)

Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden

Thorsten Blenckner

Tjärnö Marine Biological Laboratory, Sweden

Jonathan Havenhand

Technical University of Denmark, Denmark

Brian MacKenzie

Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany

Thomas Neumann

Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland

Jan-Marcin Weslawski

Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia

Urmas Raudsepp

Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland

Tuija Ruoho-Airola

Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht , Germany

Eduardo Zorita

Atlantic Branch of P.P.Shirov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Boris Chubarenko 

Linköping University, Sweden

Björn-Ola Linnér

Please visit the ECOSUPPORT webpage for more information!