Top Baltic Sea science on show in St. Petersburg

New scientific results were reported over the five days in late August when the 8^th Baltic Sea Science Congress (BSSC) and the final BONUS+ final annual conference convened jointly in St. Petersburg, Russia.

The BONUS scientists delivered nearly a quarter of reports presented at the BSSC with a total number of papers amounting to close of 400. In addition, eight out of 19 thematic sessions of the congress were initiated by the BONUS+ scientists. The broad themes of the conference included 1) Modern state, paleoreconstructions, trends; 2) Processes; 3) Impacts on ecosystem, environmental hazards; and 4) IT & management.

“The high quality of presentations at the BSSC is unprecedented” said Ilppo Vuorinen, the head of the Archipelago Research Center, University of Turku, Finland. “It is particularly important that the congress was in Russia giving the Russian scientists a possibility for networking with the rest of the Baltic Sea countries.” Vuorinen also hosted visits by the Presidents of Russia and Finland last year and the General Secretary of the United Nations this year to the successful AMBER coastal ecosystems project in Seili, Finland.

Anders Omstedt and the BALTIC-C team presented the first-ever synoptic view of the inorganic carbon turnover. The results indicate a strong probability of eutrophication having a central role in changes in acid-base of the Sea. With increased CO₂ uptake during future summers and more mineralisation during future winters, the acid-base balance might express a seasonal swing: more basic in summer, more acid in winter. The winter acidification might be strengthened even more by influx of acid water from the North Sea. “The future depends on how we act as it is clear that our way of life and management options should aim to reduce CO₂ emissions and nutrient loads”, Omstedt said.

A team of scientists led by Aarno Kotilainen from Geological Survey of Finland presented extremely interesting findings of the effects of earthquakes on the seafloor in Archipelago Sea. These observations witness that even a low magnitude quake may liquefy the surface sediment over vast areas thus causing a mass replacement of material. Such replacement of sediment can affect underwater engineering structures. Scientists hope that analysis of the INFLOW results will shed more light on this phenomenon of tremendous potential practical importance.

RECOCA scientists led by Fredrik Wulff and Christoph Humborg brought to the congress the report on development of the toolboxes for assessment of net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) and net anthropogenic phosphorus input (NAPI) - a new important step in development of the Baltic NEST decision support system. By use of NANI and NAPI, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of budget and retention of the essential nutrients over the watershed is now made possible by these tools.

Furthermore, a plenary lecture delivered by Fredrik Wulff (RECOCA) questioned the feasibility of the well-known HELCOMS’s Baltic Sea Action Plan. The messages from their research are bold: reaching the BSAP targets would not be possible without touching the life-styles of people living in the drainage, e.g. consumption of meat; the natural time scale of the processes within the Baltic would hardly allow regaining the good ecological status by 2020, as promised by the BSAP; consequently, the BSAP targets would benefit from a revision that is based on solid scientific evidence.

ECOSUPPORT scientists under the leadership of Markus Meier aim towards radical improvement of the reliability of our biogeochemical prediction by application of the ‘ensemble’ method known in the climate modelling. Meier group’s plenary presentation at the congress sharpened significantly our understanding of the future oxygen conditions under impact of climate change. Scientists argue that in conditions of the future climate effect of Baltic Sea Action Plan measures on bottom oxygen are smaller than expected and uncertain. ECOSUPPORT has also developed a visualization platform ‘GeoDome’ demonstrating the state of the Baltic Sea under different scenarios of nutrient supply, pressure from fisheries and impact of climate change. ‘GeoDome’ helps also non-scientist to understand better and be more receptive of this research and different scenarios and will be next accessible at the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region and Baltic Development Forum conference in October in Gdansk.

Another insight into the phenomenon of Baltic hypoxia was delivered by Jacob Carstensen’s HYPER team. “Can the hydro-physical forcing and anthropogenic impact be separated?” has been a long-standing question. Now the answer of HYPER scientists is YES. From the 1906 the oxygen deficient area has spread manifold - clearly due to human impact.

Spatial planning and status assessment in the Baltic Sea requires wealth of knowledge about the bottom habitats that is extremely difficult and costly to be obtained by traditional sampling. Mats Lindegarth and his team (PREHAB) reported to the congress about their success in developing of the modelling methods of prediction of biological structures and functioning of the benthos system.

Peter Tiselius' and the BAZOOCA team's results on the BAltic ZOOplankton Cascades indicate that the earlier concerns regarding American comb jelly Mnemiopsis feeding on cod eggs are unsupported and that it constitutes no threat to the Baltic cod population. Low salinity in the Baltic prevents explosive outbreaks, but adaptation to low salinity by Mnemiopsis may change this in the future. At present, sprat and herring remain the main predators on zooplankton and because of that, fisheries continues to be the largest regulatory factor for the pelagic food web in the Baltic.

BSSC, Copyright Andris Andrusaitis, BONUS

These glimpses of results, and more, will be elaborated this autumn also to various stakeholder audiences. At the BONUS Forum on 24 October, all the 16 BONUS+ project coordinators from AMBER, BALCOFISH, BALTGENE, BALTIC-C, BALTIC GAS, BALTICWAY, BAZOOCA, BEAST, ECOSUPPORT, HYPER, IBAM, INFLOW, PREHAB, PROBALT, RECOCA, RISKGOV will share and discuss their results with the audience of policymakers across the Baltic Sea region. In November highlights of the results will be presented to the wider European community in Brussels.

“We are extremely pleased with the scientific outcomes of the Baltic Sea Science Congress this year and look forward to next Congress in Klaipeda”, said Kaisa Kononen, Executive Director of BONUS. “We also look forward to sharing the latest information and research with the policymakers this autumn at the BONUS Forum and ensure that the links between the BONUS+ research and important policy processes across the region are transparent.”