ECOSUPPORT
Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to support decision making
ECOSUPPORT briefing document on key results
For more relevant publications, visit www.bonusportal.org/publications (category BONUS+ reports).
Begin date 1.1.2009
End date 31.12.2011
Grant: 1 625 305€
The response of the marine
ecosystem during the 21st century depends on several, partly competing drivers,
like expected reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loads, increased water
temperatures, and reduced salinities. Thus, presently discussed targets for
nutrient load reductions that may be sufficient to improve the ecological
status in present climate might fail under future climate conditions.
The project ECOSUPPORT combines the assessments of various drivers to promote an
ecosystem approach to the management of human activities. The main aim is to
provide a multi-model system tool to support decision makers. The tool is based
upon scenarios from an existing state-of-the-art coupled
atmosphere-ice-ocean-land surface model for the Baltic Sea catchment area,
physical-biogeochemical models of differing complexity, a food web model,
statistical fish population models, economic calculations, and new data
detailing climate effects on marine biota.
The expected outcome is an advanced modeling tool for scenario simulations of the whole marine ecosystem that can underpin and inform design strategies to ensure water quality standards, biodiversity and fish stocks. For the aims of ECOSUPPORT 12 institutes from 7 Baltic Sea countries form an excellent consortium consisting of University institutes, national governmental agencies and research institutes (including EU-recognized Centers of Excellence) with a wide range of expertise.
Keywords
Climate change, land use change, eutrophication, multi-model ensemble simulations, transient scenarios
List of Participants and Principal Scientists
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Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden |
Markus Meier (Coordinator) |
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Baltic Nest Institute, Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden |
Thorsten Blenckner |
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Tjärnö Marine Biological Laboratory, Sweden |
Jonathan Havenhand |
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Technical University of Denmark, Denmark |
Brian MacKenzie |
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Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany |
Thomas Neumann |
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Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland |
Jan-Marcin Weslawski |
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Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia |
Urmas Raudsepp |
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Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland |
Tuija Ruoho-Airola |
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Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht , Germany |
Eduardo Zorita |
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Atlantic Branch of P.P.Shirov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia |
Boris Chubarenko |
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Linköping University, Sweden |
Björn-Ola Linnér |
